Political Analysts are working overtime to make predictions about the upcoming 2018 mid-term elections.
As with every election, there is a great deal of number crunching that is going on.
What makes the statistical calculations even more complicated are the unique features of American Democracy.
It’s not a simple first-past-the-post system, neither is the election held in just one stage. The primaries and the electoral colleges add a great deal of complexity to the calculations.
On top of that, the gerrymandering which has become a most vitiating process in the whole process render the basic demographic stats of an area irrelevant.
So, what and how much can we glean about the 2018 mid-term elections from the statistics that we have at the present moment.
Not much but let’s try nevertheless to see what the political atmosphere in the land is like through some of those numbers which have been revealed by opinion polls and other number crunching processes.
Role Of Millennials
Every election cycle sees a great deal of speculation about the role and inclinations of young voters, especially millennials. This time is no different.
An opinion poll was conducted by NBC News/GenForward which revealed interesting details about the millennials. 59% of them want the Democrats to control the Congress while 60% do not have a good opinion of the Republicans.
Yet the Democrats can’t start celebrating because only 55% of these millennials are determined to vote in the midterms.
This has always been the problem with young voters.
Their views might be strong but their inclination to vote remains fleeting.
NBC polling revealed the participation of young voters in past midterm elections.
In 2014, voters under the age of 30 constituted just 13% of the voting population while in 2010, they were 12%
So, the millennials are certainly leaning towards the Left and Democrats but that may amount to not much on the polling day.
Trust In Election Process
The 2016 Presidential elections have been marred by accusations of meddling by Russian agencies and a probe by Robert Muller has been going on for some time. While the Trump Camp is denying any involvement, Democrats seem convinced that there was some shady activity going on.
This ongoing mud-slinging has affected the trust of the voters in the whole election process.
A poll conducted by University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and Ipsos revealed that only around half the population of the country has faith in the integrity of polls.
On the specific question of whether the polls in the country are “fair and open,” 51% responded with yes while 43 disagreed.
Not surprisingly, Republicans have more faith than Democrats in the election process.
General Polling Numbers
Democrats are clearly enjoying an edge as far as the general polling is concerned. A Washington Post-ABC News survey revealed that 52% of the people are likely to support the Democratic candidate in their district compared to 38% who would back the Republican challenger.
One fact that is very clear is that young and minority voters are clearly in the camp of the Democrats while those who are older and white are backing GOP. This is not surprising.
Barack Obama may be out of the White House but he continues to be one of the most popular leaders among not just the Democrats but Americans in general.
With the country badly divided between Right and Left and politics becoming even more vitiated thanks to a President who is doing away with all norms of decency in public life, it isn’t surprising that the former President has decided to leave his retirement behind and actively start campaigning for the 2018 fall elections.
But would it be beneficial to Democrats? Or would it cause them harm? This is a moot point.
Undoubtedly, President Obama still has a great deal of popularity among large sections of American society, especially the African-American community.
But it is also to be remembered that he wasn’t able to turn his popularity into votes for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential elections.
So, is he going to give the Democrats a much-needed boost in the 2018 mid-terms or prove to be a persona non-grata? Let’s explore this question in greater detail.
Advantages Of President Obama’s Campaigning
First, let’s explore the benefits President Obama brings to the Democratic Party’s campaign. The biggest gain could be a re-energization of the party’s base. A lot of people weren’t motivated to vote for Hillary Clinton and while their animosity to Trump would have removed their apathy, the verbal eloquence of Obama could create even more enthusiasm.
It may also bring some of the donors who are hesitant to back the Democrats this time back into the fold.
Obama’s speeches are bound to attract large crowds and that will bring in greater volunteers and funds.
Another great ability which President Obama had, though it may have weakened during the latter half of his tenure, was to appeal to those voters who weren’t committed to one party or another.
At a time when the nation’s politicians are tearing each other apart with more visceral hatred than ever seen before in decades, his appeal to these non-committed voters may be crucial.
Disadvantages Of President Obama’s Campaigning
While President Obama may bring some energy back into the Democratic Party’s base, he could equally, if not in greater volume, energise the Republican base also.
Those Republicans who voted for Trump but are not equally enthusiastic about turning out to vote for the candidates in these elections may suddenly be reminded of those very qualities of the Democratic Party which they wholeheartedly opposed.
Former Presidents are usually very wary of stepping into the political waters once they have vacated the White House and President Obama has said that he too wants to gracefully follow that tradition. But he terms his interventions as being occasioned by the unprecedented situation that has emerged in the country due to the arrival of Trump into the White House.
This view would be happily accepted by many but there is a danger of the Republican party presenting this as an attempt by a threatened establishment to stop Trump in his tracks.
In the end, we’ll have to wait for the election results and their analysis to answer this basic question?
38-year Paulette Jordan would make history if she wins the gubernatorial race in Idaho on November 6. She would not only become the first women governor of Idaho but also the first Native American to climb to the most of Governorship in any state of the United States in its entire history.
But the odds are high against her success. Idaho is a Republican fortress which hasn’t voted for a Democratic President since Lyndon B Johnson and hasn’t had a Democratic Governor since 1995.
According to some estimates, GOP supporters outnumber Democrats 4-to-1 in the state.
The electoral topography of the state is dominated by rural and suburban areas where the conservatives dominate.
The 32-point victory that Donald Trump scored over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Presidential elections further testifies to the redness of this province.
So, does Jordan stand any chance of pulling a rabbit out of the hat and earning a victory that will exalt her to a position of superstardom in national politics?
Only time will tell but we can certainly look at her strengths that propelled her through the primary process and made her the nominee.
Jordan’s Victory In The Primaries
It won’t be an exaggeration to say that Jordan’s election campaign in the primaries had its roots in the Democratic Party’s 2016 presidential nomination primaries.
Bernie Sanders of Vermont registered a thumping victory over the eventual nominee Hillary Clinton in the state with more than 3/4th of the vote. This established the fact that while the state overall is very conservative, the energy in the Democratic base of the party is with the progressive wing which saw Bernie Sanders as its darling.
Jordan realised this and ran a campaign on similar progressive issues. Her support for the expansion of Medicaid and stress on promoting cleaner sources of energy endeared her to the Left of the Democratic Party.
This earned her the support of various progressive organisations like Planned Parenthood, Democracy for America, Indivisible, People for the American Way and, quite crucially, People for Bernie Sanders. Even Cher supported her.
This growth of support among the base of Democrats secured her the nomination in place of the establishment’s preferred candidate AJ Balukoff.
Her Strategy And Policy Preferences For Gubernatorial Election
While she may have tapped into the latent energy of the Democratic base in Idaho, Jordan realizes that winning the main election in such a deeply conservative state requires some elements in her persona and agenda that appeal to conservatives also.
Hence she has stressed on the fact that she is a gun-owner and likes hunting, though not connected to the NRA. She is also personally pro-life while supporting abortion rights in her political stand.
Another interesting stance she has taken is supporting decriminalization of marijuana possession and legalization of marijuana’s medical form.
But where she can really make a dent in Republican popularity is her appeal to the rural voters.
By campaigning for the right of the state to hold onto its public land and prevent it from privatization, she is attempting to win over the rural territory which constitutes a vast part of the state.
In fact, it’s her championing of the rural cause that has given her an opportunity. Her personal history of growing up in a ranch makes here ideal to connect with the rural voters of Idaho and effect an upset.
The political atmosphere in the whole United States of America is charged at the moment and the state of Idaho is as electrified as any. A Republican stronghold which Donald Trump carried by 32 points is unlikely to turn blue.
But still there are dynamics in these elections which are making it much different than mid-term elections in general.
For instance, the Democratic nominee for Governor, Paulette Jordan, is running to become the first women ever to hold this position in Idaho. On top of that, she would also become the first Native American to be a governor in the history of the country.
For many, though, the real race for Governor’s position takes place in the Republican primary rather than the actual elections.
Here, the three-term incumbent, Butch Otter, has opted out of the race. This led to a seven-man contest in the Republican primary for the nominee. The incumbent Lieutenant Governor Brad Little emerged as the winner and will be the party’s nominee.
What will also be up for election would be all the executive positions in the Idaho administration such as Secretary of State, Attorney General, etc. But the second most important election after the Governor’s race would be that for the two seats of state in the US House of Representatives.
For Democrats, it is imperative that they gain control of the House in order to mount a serious challenge to the policies of Donald Trump.
Currently, the whole political landscape is hugely tilted in favor of the GOP with them controlling both houses of the Congress, the White House and majority of Governorships. This has led to rash policy-making from the Grand Old Party which has created a great deal of unhappiness in the public.
This is why the hopes of a ‘Blue Wave’ came as a pleasant relief to not just Democrats but to the wider public in general.
But can this ‘Blue Wave’ actually materialize and can it decrease the redness of Idaho? Only time will tell.
The Gubernatorial Race
So, Paulette Jordan is going to square off against Brad Little in a gubernatorial race that, many believe and not unjustifiably so, as a done deal. But Jordan is a very unique candidate and not just because of her race and gender.
She is combining adherence to those values which powered Bernie Sanders to a landslide victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 Democratic Presidential primary with characteristics which would appeal to a conservative base also.
While she is supporting the demand that public land be not privatized and also backing planned parenthood, her disclosure of love for hunting and ownership of guns makes her a bit more likely to attract right-leaning voters.
On the other side of the aisle, Brad Little is giving out the message that he would be a faithful follower of his predecessor’s policies. His message has been centered on continuing the stability which, he says, would be terribly disturbed by the election of ‘a big wild change’ and a ‘continuation of the Socialist from Vermont.’
He is focusing on issues such as better education and infrastructure.
However, the big difficulty he is facing is carving out his own image. He still seems to be the same as Otter and so far, very little seems to differentiate them.
Race For US Congress
Idaho has two seats in the US House of Representatives and both will be up for election this fall. The contest in the 1st Congressional district would be between Russ Fulcher of Republican Party and Cristina McNeil of Democrats.
Fulcher is a successful businessman who is using that experience to recommend himself while McNeil is the chair of the Democratic Party’s Latino Caucus in Idaho and a successful immigrant to this country. This seems to be the likely seat where there could be a change.
The 2nd Congressional District would see Mike Simpson of GOP taking on Aaron Swisher of the Democratic Party. Polls suggest that Simpson is way ahead of Swisher and it seems like a very safe seat for the Republicans.